A very intensified agenda awaits Turkey in the year 2010. The most difficult issues of 2010 are expected to be Cyprus and Armenian issues. Other topics are; elections in Iraq, Iran’s nuclear problem, peace process in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Turkey’s foreign policy moves in 2009have formedone of the most active periods of recent years. Several issues that are considered as impossible to take place were realized. With the words of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the issues and the geography that concerns Turkey have increased day by day. And again a very intensified agenda awaits Turkey in the year 2010. The most difficult issues which Turkey will have to spare the much effort are expected to be Cyprus and Armenia issues. Turkey is a direct party in these issues. On the other hand, elections in Iraq, nuclear problem of Iran, peace process in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bosnia and Herzegovina will be the issues that Turkey will be concerned about. On the other hand, Ankara administration will continue its openings towards Africa and Latin America.

ARMENIA

Turkey-Armenia relations will be one of the most important issues in 2010. Two countries signed protocols towards normalization of relations and development of bilateral ties. Ankara has introduced the protocols to Turkish Grand National Assembly for ratification. On the other hand, Armenia issued Zurich protocols to its Constitutional Court for analyse of the protocols on their convenience with Armenian constitutional law. Court will discuss protocols on January 12. Armenia has already started to press Turkey on ratification of protocols in the Turkish Parliament. Armenia plans to press Turkey until the date April 24, which is considered by Armenians as the anniversary of so called Armenian genocide. On the other hand, Turkey has several times announced that protocols will not be ratified without progress in the process of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Ankara insists on the progress in the OSCE Minsk Group process. Therefore, meetings of Azerbaijani and Armenian administrations towards resolution of Karabakh problem will be decisive for the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement. Despite the big problems in the Turkey-Armenia process, Turkish Foreign Ministry authorities do not expect a big crisis in the relations. The major opinion is that relations will progress in a positive direction in every option.

CYPRUS AND EU

Ankara insists on finalization of negotiations in the Island until the elections in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in April. Ankara wants the negotiation process to be limited and stresses that negotiations should not be open ended. Turkey’s pressure on this issue will continue by increasing.

Ankara also calls its friends in EU to be more efficient on Cyprus issue. Cyprus issue is not only decisive for the people of the Island but also for Turkey’s process of EU membership. Greek populated side of the Island does not only blockade the negotiations but also create problems in every phase. Since there are not several chapters to be opened in the membership negotiations, Turkey may come to the point of freezing the negotiations with EU. Being aware of all these, Ankara will hold a more energic policy, and voice unjust EU policies louder, such as European blockade against Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and about visa requirements forTurkish citizens in EU.

According to the report of News.am, 2009 is marked by turning point in Turkey-Armenia relations that had huge impact on foreign political and domestic developments of Armenia, the Chairman of Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation in ArmeniaStepan Grigoryan told. According to him, Azerbaijan’s reaction to Armenia-Turkey Protocols and “entailed warlike statements by Azerbaijani officials” also impacted foreign policy.

Forecasting the coming year developments, Grigoryan stated that international community made an attempt to intensify the Karabakh peace process and dictate signing of the framework agreement that with no specifics. The expert underlined that any comprehensive settlement of Karabakh issue, for instance on the matter of security zone around Karabakh will dramatically destabilize domestic political situation in Armenia. “If a framework agreement like Madrid Principles is signed, the situation will not aggravate, but if the document mentions the territories controlled by Armenian side, the situation escalation in Armenia is inevitable,” the expert said.

As to Armenia-Turkey relations and possible ratification of the Protocols, the expert considers that documents will be approved by Turkish Parliament in the months ahead.

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