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The Orams decision and the economy


Before uncorking the champagne bottle to celebrate, the Greek Cypriot side should take a realistic step back and ask: What exactly has been won? And what comes next?
The ECJ decision is simply unenforceable. By its own choice, the EU’s own acqui communataire is suspended and inoperative in north Cyprus. And the Turkish side is in no mood to implement a decision from a Europe perceived to be increasingly pro-Greek.
Of course, the decision will have indirect side-effects, primarily psychological, possibly damaging the confidence level of the Talat-Christofias talks.
What about its economic impact? Here, no more than a marginal effect should be expected. Maybe in the short run, some EU citizens owning real estate in the north will panic and sell out, and likewise potential investors may be discouraged. However, for every discouraged seller wishing to jump ship, there are probably ten potential Turkish opportunists ready to seize a buying option. If need be, owners may hide their ownership and carry on as before.
Within a reasonable time, the real estate market in northern Cyprus will adjust as markets always do.
In the longer term, the property market will be more Turkified, with Turkish citizens replacing EU citizens forced to dispossession. However, the Greek Cypriot owners prior to 1974 are now further away from restoration or compensation as envisaged under the Annan Plan.
How so, one might ask? History is a useful guide. In 1994, the ECJ put an export ban on Turkish Cypriot trade destined for the EU market. And what was the impact? Immediately and surely, the ECJ ruling caused a trade diversion from Europe to Turkey. Prior to this ruling, about 65% to 75% of Turkish Cypriot foreign trade was with EU countries; now, it is with Turkey.
The Orams decision can be no different. A legal ruling is no substitute for political decision-making. The Greek Cypriot legal team may have won a legal battle, but without a comprehensive political settlement of the Cyprus Problem, it will be frustrated by the new political realities on the ground in the island.
The painful fact is that Cyprus is now a bitterly divided country. EU membership has not changed that fact. Nor can a European court alter it. Only acceptable results at the negotiating table can do that.
The EU was supposed to act as a “catalyst” in the promotion of a settlement in Cyprus. To date it has failed miserably in this act. The EU is no longer perceived as a “level playing field.”
For the average Turkish person, in north Cyprus or Turkey, Europe is practicing double standards. It is heaping rewards on the Greek side while demanding a long list of concessions from the Turkish side. Brussels acts as if its own pledges can be broken (for example, to end the isolation of Turkish Cypriots in return for a Yes vote in the 2004 referendum), while making demands on Ankara on behalf of Greek Cypriots as well as the Kurds, Greeks and Armenians.
In the end, it boils down to this: the Greek Cypriots have to decide what to do about the status quo in Cyprus. Whether they wish to seek a political solution at home or a legal remedy abroad? The inescapable conclusion is that to recover territory lost in 1974 requires some sort of Land for Sovereignty swap as in the Annan Plan.
 

FinancialMirror.Com


10.05.2009
 

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By:john on Oca 23, 2010


  

another screw in the construction of the of the partition framework...sad....

By:john on Ağu 5, 2009


  

How strange that the GCs have been taking money from the tourist brits for thirty years never mentioning that they hate them and think they are greedy, if it was'nt for the brits you greek aresoles would still be pulling donkeys around. With the money you get from tourists and money from the bases a

By:andrews on Ağu 1, 2009


  

THE ORAMS AND THE OTHER GREEDY BRITISH PEOPLE WHO HAVE BOUGHT STOLEN GREEK CYPRIOT PROPERTY KNEW MOST LAND IN THE NORTH IS STILL OWNED BY GREEKS.

By:Laura Brown on Tem 14, 2009


  

To tell you the truth, i am sure that you do not know anything about law. Thats why you mislead us and our friends to buy property in kerynia. You didnt tell us Mr. that the land belongs to somebody else. And anyway if you do not respect the English you can stay with the turkish like you said.

By:Greg on Tem 1, 2009


  

Not much has changed in 35yrs! Greek Cypriots still trot out the same old stories of how they were innocent and robbed. They still want the penny and the bun. A two tier state may well be agreed as a solution but don't expect the GCs to call a halt whatever they agree too, their criped and grabbing

By:Simon K. on Haz 13, 2009


  

Many people have unknowingly stepped into a stalemate dispute. Many have deliberately done so. But this argument has got Cyprus to a standstill of building work. I feel sorry for the ones that have unknowingly got themselves into this.

By:Hakan (UK_TR_KKTC) British on Haz 9, 2009


  

North Cyprus DOES EXCIST; and will not go away like ISREAL WONT LEAVE ISREAL. The Turkish Army did not invade, but in-fact went to save the Turkish Population from being slaughter, GENOCIDE, The Greeks are not different from HITLER, and what did TO THE JEWS. THIS IS A FACT. The Island was owned by t

By:truthbe told on Haz 2, 2009


  

bickering does no good and a lot of it based on not knowing the facts of what occured in cyprus - i am a brit cyp first and foremost - cyprus - did it have a chance as a republic?

By:Tony on Haz 2, 2009


  

O.K There is a lot of Talk about the Greeks loosing land, but dont forget it works both ways, i wonder what sort of compensation claim the turks would have on Larnaca Airport, remember what is good for Goose is good for the Gander

By:Andy on Haz 2, 2009


  

The Annan plan is a cooked up nonsense by the yanks to satisfy their Turkish friends. one day you will give our land back and we will give yours and if you dont wantit sell that to those fat pommy friends of yours instead of selling them ours.!

By:Stephanos Constantinou on May 27, 2009


  

Hi.Quite often it interests me to read the newspapers from the occupied area.You may not like the term "occupied".I'm a British subject .I was living in Reading Berks Uk in 1974 with the Turkish Invation.Can you please tell me what's happening with my property.Can you imagine if the Orams build a ho

By:Sol on May 18, 2009


  

The British ex pat who bought property in the north of Cyprus took a chance and thought that they where untouchable. They took advantage of other peoples misfortune. They completely ignored warnings and just acted out of greed. Sorry I’ve got no sympathy for them!

By:terry on May 17, 2009


  

Its obvious your readers like europe and britain whole heartedly. Favour the greeks after all it was them that started the mess with there genicite towards Turks, what's happened to (_rk land on south, dare we ask!!

By:GREEDY ORAMS on May 16, 2009


  

THE GREEDY BRITISH PEOPLE WHO HAVE BOUGHT STOLEN GREEK CYPRIOT PROPERTY WILL HAVE TO HAND IT OVER TO THE RIGHTFUL OWNERS.ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME.

By:Richard on May 13, 2009


  

Why is it an inescapable conclusion that the Greek Cypriots have to swap sovereignty to recover lost territory? Is it because Turkey has 40,000 troops on the island? sounds like blackmail to me.

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